Your full list of 2011 Oscar nominees, complete with my rambly, obvious predictions. Feel free to leave your own reactions / predictions in the comments:
The Kids Are Alright
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
- Has to be Social Network unless the Academy goes out of its way to push against the Globes, in which case Black Swan has an outside shot. The King’s Speech is too relatively obscure to win the year after Hurt Locker – they’ll probably tend towards a more generally well-known film, plus Social Network double-rewards David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin. Two birds with one awkward stone that we had no idea would be such a juggernaut when we first heard about the idea of the movie and chuckled.
Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”
James Franco in “127 Hours”
- Obviously Colin Firth. Javier Bardem and Jeff Bridges already have their Oscars (otheriwse Bridges definitely would have a shot), and Eisenberg and Franco will get overlooked with the ol’ “they’ll have another chance someday” rationalization.
Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
- Natalie Portman’s the obvious choice, but Annette Bening has a shot because she’s older and been nominated before and might pull some “it’s about time” votes (i.e., Bridges last year). It’d also be likely the only award “The Kids Are All Right” could win, whereas voters may feel like “Black Swan” is adequately compensated if it wins some art direction or costume awards.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”
- Christian Bale’s a pretty big favorite for this one; Jeremy Renner will win someday but not for “The Town,” and Geoffrey Rush has already won, plus The Fighter was basically designed to get its cast Oscars (working title was “Fightin’ For Oscars”).
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
- Again, I feel like the Academy is gonna feel some pressure to appear discerning and not just repeat the Globe winners, but this category really seems like Melissa Leo’s to lose. Although – ANIMAL KINGDOM!
“Black Swan,” Darren Aronofsky
“The Fighter,” David O. Russell
“The King’s Speech,” Tom Hooper
“The Social Network,” David Fincher
“True Grit,” Joel and Ethan Coen
- It’s Fincher’s time, especially with some Benjamin Button guilt thrown in there. Keep at it, Aronofsky, David O. Russell, and Christopher Nolan – you’ll win eventually, just got to lose a few more times first (the Oscar equivalent of hitting more open mics).
Animated Feature Film
“How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
“The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
“Toy Story 3″ Lee Unkrich
- If Toy Story hadn’t been nominated for Best Picture, I wouldn’t have been totally shocked if “How To Train Your Dragon” — a successful and well-reviewed non-Pixar film, like former winner “Happy Feet” — took the upset, but it seems just a tad anticlimactic to have one of the three as a Best Picture Nominee (unless voters deem Toy Story a better picture than it functions as an animated feature, which would be amusing). Guess they’ll save their next “break from Pixar” year for whenever “Cars 2″ comes out.
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1″
“The King’s Speech”
- Aaand we’re getting into “why even predict it except for addicted Oscar pool junkies” territory. King’s Speech might snag one or two of these production awards, but I think the voters will use the art direction / cinematography / special effects lot to acknowledge some of the films that aren’t winning the above awards, like Inception, possibly True Grit, and Black Swan (especially if Natalie Portman loses).
“Black Swan,” Matthew Libatique
“Inception,” Wally Pfister
“The King’s Speech,” Danny Cohen
“The Social Network,” Jeff Cronenweth
“True Grit,” Roger Deakins
- The cinematographer for Social Network is named “Jeff Cronenweth?” To go along with lead editor Mike Cronenbloom and gaffer Nick Cronenman and best boy David Cronennotberg.
“Alice in Wonderland,” Colleen Atwood
“I Am Love,” Antonella Cannarozzi
“The King’s Speech,” Jenny Beavan
“The Tempest,” Sandy Powell
“True Grit” Mary Zophres
- “I AM LOVE” BETTER F***ING WIN GOD DAMMIT! Nah, don’t care. Hey remember “The Tempest”?
“Exit through the Gift Shop,” Banksy and Jaimie D’Cruz
“Gasland,” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
“Inside Job,” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
“Restrepo,” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
“Waste Land,” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley
- Nothing for “Winnebago Man”? Dang.
Documentary (Short Subject)
“Killing in the Name”
“Strangers No More”
“Sun Come Up”
“The Warriors of Qiugang”
- About time someone did a shortform documentary on Rage. (Killing in the Name? This thing on? Man this list is long.)
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
- Usually an easy category for the Best Picture winner to pad its total. Might’ve thought “Inception” had a chance but never mind, probably just another one for Social Network.
Foreign Language Film
“In a Better World,” Denmark
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi),” Algeria
- I thought “Biutiful” was from Mexico-Spain? Critics love that wrong spelling sh*t though.
“Barney’s Version,” Adrien Morot
“The Way Back,” Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
“The Wolfman,” Rick Baker and Dave Elsey
- Ahhh Makeup, our annual easy “Do you know [BLANK] got an Oscar nomination this year??” category (Wolfman is this year’s Norbit). “Barney’s Version” will probably win for making up that it was a real movie with Paul Giamatti in it.
Music (Original Score)
“How to Train Your Dragon,” John Powell
“Inception,” Hans Zimmer
“The King’s Speech,” Alexandre Desplat
“127 Hours,” A.R. Rahman
“The Social Network,” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
- Would’ve liked to have seen Tron in there, but again, figure this is probably another Social Network “momentum” award (though deserving).
Music (Original Song)
“Coming Home” from “Country Strong,” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
“I See the Light” from “Tangled,” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours,” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3,” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
- “127 Hours” had an original song? Cool. I assumed they remixed ZZ Top’s “Legs” with the chorus “Least he’s still got legs”.
Short Film (Animated)
“Day & Night,” Teddy Newton
“The Gruffalo,” Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
“Let’s Pollute,” Geefwee Boedoe
“The Lost Thing,” Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
“Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)” Bastien Dubois
Short Film (Live Action)
“The Confession,” Tanel Toom
“The Crush,” Michael Creagh
“God of Love,” Luke Matheny
“Na Wewe,” Ivan Goldschmidt
“Wish 143,” Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite
- Not gonna pretend to have a prediction in either category. Just Google some critic’s predictions the day before your Oscar pool.
“Inception,” Richard King
“Toy Story 3,” Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
“Tron: Legacy,” Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
“True Grit,” Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
“Unstoppable,” Mark P. Stoeckinger
“Inception,” Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
“The King’s Speech,” Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
“Salt,” Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
“The Social Network,” Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
“True Grit,” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
- The sound awards definitely feel like token “reward Inception even though we can’t possibly count it as a real movie cause it’s exciting and not based on like a gay balloonist or whatever” award.
“Alice in Wonderland,” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1,” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
“Hereafter,” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
“Inception,” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
“Iron Man 2,” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick
- Hello? Tron? Anyone? The best-looking movie I’ve probably ever seen? Yikes.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
“127 Hours,” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
“The Social Network,” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
“Toy Story 3,” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
“True Grit,” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Winter’s Bone,” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
- Social Network, doy. They’re gonna announce the winner like that.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
“Another Year,” Written by Mike Leigh
“The Fighter,” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
“Inception,” Written by Christopher Nolan
“The Kids Are All Right,” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
“The King’s Speech,” Screenplay by David Seidler
- Probably King’s Speech. Despite the numerous stuttering typos.
Aaaand with that lazy joke, the exhausting list is complete. Oscar Predictions? Leave ‘em in the comments.