Best Film — Ray
Based on one simple fact — I don't know anybody who doesn't like this movie. Amid the great performances and great music, Ray is also a timely reminder of the individual struggles which helped give this country its character.

Best Actor — Jamie Foxx (Ray)
Denzel broke Oscar's color barrier, now it's Jamie's turn to build on it. Foxx owned the screen like Ray owned the stage. The actor vividly illustrated where the singer's soul came from. He'll have added goodwill for his superb performance in Collateral.

Best Actress — Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)
Oscar voters love it when an actor transforms themselves for a role. Throw in a lot of suffering and you've improved your chances. Swank not only made herself look like a boxer, she took falls like one, too.

Best Director — Martin Scorsese (The Aviator)
The Aviator is no Raging Bull, but Scorsese still summoned amazing performances and the fantasyland of '40s Hollywood. He also inspired half the voters to make movies. For God's sake, give it to him.

Best Supporting Actress — Natalie Portman (Closer)
This award looks favorably on youthful newcomers playing fallen women. Playing the role of a mysterious stripper, Natalie Portman should win for holding Closer together — and for brightening up Garden State.

Best Supporting Actor — Thomas Haden Church (Sideways)
Church got a nom and Paul Giamatti didn't. Here's why: as a horndog Z-list actor, Church's character was the loser that Sideways should have been about. He'll win this once, and suffer an afterlife as a Trivial Pursuit answer.

Best Animated Feature Film — The Incredibles
If six-year olds could vote, Shrek 2 would be a shoo-in. But what Academy member couldn't relate to a superhero who found saving the world more fulfilling than raising a family?

Foreign Language Film — The Sea Inside
Spanish director Alejandro Amenabar's has made a shameless euthanasia epic. Javier Bardem is onscreen almost every second as the quadriplegic who fights for his right to die. That juicy role and emotional manipulation are both sure to attract votes.

Makeup — Lemony Snicket's a Series of Unfortunate Events
No one remembers the makeup in The Sea Inside, and no one would dare vote for Mel Gibson's devout snuff film. But the craft needed to give Jim Carrey's Count Olaf 1001 faces helped define the world of Snicket.

Music (Score) — The Village (James Newton Howard)
This could be the one category The Passion has a chance of winning (even if the music cribbed The Last Temptation of Christ), but Howard's five previous nominations put him on course for victory.

Music (Score) — "Accidentally in Love" from Shrek 2
Hum a few bars of The Polar Express' "Believe" or Phantom's "Learn to Be Lonely" and we might be convinced. This was both a bona fide hit and one of Counting Crows' snappiest numbers in years.

Art Direction — The Aviator
The darkly-lit theatre was the star in Phantom and A Very Long Engagement's battleground was hell on earth. But Dante Ferretti's recreations of the Cocoanut Grove and Grauman's are the very essence of the Hollywood Dream Factory.

Cinematography — The Aviator
Robert Richardson's camera was The Aviator's co-pilot, making Hughes airborne and using each takeoff and landing to tell his story. Honorable mention: House of Flying Daggers' sumptuous change of seasons.

Costume Design — The Aviator
Costumier Colleen Atwood hinted at what Lemony Snicket might have looked like if her old boss Tim Burton directed it. But The Aviator will take it because voters are too lazy to consider anything else.

Documentary Feature — Super Size Me
Fahrenheit 9/11's shut-out leaves the field wide open, but Michael Moore-wannabe Morgan Spurlock will hold his prize high, if only because no Hollywood A-lister will cop to preferring a Big Mac to the sushi at Koi.

Documentary Short Subject — Sister Rose's Passion
It's about a nun who forced the Vatican to change their mind on whether the Jews killed Christ. In the year of The Passion, expect this to be a pointed riposte to Mel and "moral values."

Film Editing — Collateral
If longtime Scorsese associate Thelma Schoonmaker cut The Aviator down to two hours, she might have her first win since Raging Bull. Collateral's Miller and Rubell deserve it, though, for creating a rhythmic ballet for Cruise and Foxx.

Short Film (Animated) — Ryan
With computer animation now the norm, there's room in this category for something different. Chris Landreth's requiem for a destitute animation pioneer artfully mingles models and painting effects.

Short Film (Live Action) — Little Terrorist
The title alone is enough to make a liberal film fan tick the box on their ballot. Ashvin Kumar's short, featuring a Muslim Pakistani boy wandering into India looking for his cricket ball, is both timely and touching.

Sound Editing — The Incredibles
Spider-Man 2 is pushed out because it's not a cartoon, and The Polar Express is a little too odd. Sure, The Incredibles nearly ripped my ears off, but it mingled dialogue and effects with grinning panache.

Sound Mixing — Ray
The Ray team made the Genius of Soul's music sound like it came not only came from Jamie Foxx's throat, but from his heart as well. This category has heavier hitters, but none with that appreciation of sonic pleasure.

Visual Effects — Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Am I the only one who thought Spider-Man looked a little too elastic? The effects in Harry Potter were seamlessly part of his world, and integral to the tale's tapestry.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay) — Million Dollar Baby
Sideways made me wish I'd read the book instead. Before Sunset was wonderful, but not really an adaptation. Paul Haggis made great characters breathe and gave them great scenes to do it in. He wins.

Writing (Original Screenplay) — Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Its trickiness could work against it, but Charlie Kaufman's Spotless Mind was wickedly clever while hitting every single emotional button. Plus, the angst of winning might inspire him to do something even weirder.