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movie news
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Fri. 02 20. 2009 7:50 AM EST
Oscar Predictions: It's Mickey Rourke And Kate Winslet's Year
Our MTV Movies experts (and a couple of friends) think the Best Picture race is between 'Slumdog' and 'Benjamin Button.'
by
Larry Carroll
Mickey Rourke as Randy "The Ram" Robinson in "The Wrestler"
(
Fox Searchlight
)
Roberto Benigni in "Life Is Beautiful" over Edward Norton in "American History X"? Paul Newman waiting 30 years for his Oscar, and Stanley Kubrick never even winning one? "Shakespeare in Love" over "Saving Private Ryan"?
Unfortunately, the
Academy Awards don't always go to the best film, actor or actress. Instead, it often becomes a battle decided by momentum, publicity, the ability to schmooze and only sometimes the quality of the work itself. But, warts and all, Oscar is still the one award that every Hollywood star dreams of placing on his or her mantel.
With that in mind, we're preparing for our wall-to-wall Oscar coverage this weekend by analyzing not only who should win, but who will win. With help from Diddy associate/ TV commentator Fonzworth Bentley and NY1 TV entertainment reporter George Whipple, the MTV Movies team attempts to get to the bottom of who'll be going home with the little gold guy.
Best Picture
Should Win
» Josh Horowitz (MTV Movies managing editor): "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
» George Whipple: "Slumdog Millionaire"
» Fonzworth Bentley: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
» Larry Carroll (MTV News senior writer): "Milk"
Will Win
» Josh Horowitz: "Slumdog Millionaire"
» George Whipple: "Slumdog Millionaire"
» Fonzworth Bentley: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
» Larry Carroll: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Analysis
Best Picture boils down to "Slumdog" and "Button," with the former taking charge as an awards-season juggernaut and the latter coming on strong as a possible spoiler. "Slumdog" is the more uplifting film and certainly has a lot of good will being thrown its way — but will Danny Boyle's film be able to avoid the inevitable backlash factor?
Best Actor
Should Win
» Josh Horowitz: Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
» George Whipple: Mickey Rourke
» Fonzworth Bentley: Mickey Rourke
» Larry Carroll: Sean Penn, "Milk"
Will Win
» Josh Horowitz: Mickey Rourke
» George Whipple: Mickey Rourke
» Fonzworth Bentley: Mickey Rourke
» Larry Carroll: Mickey Rourke
Analysis
Some might say Rourke's personal story of redemption is earning more awards-season votes than the one he gives onscreen. According to our commentators, however, Randy "The Ram" Robinson is the real deal. If anyone has a chance of snatching away Rourke's all-but-certain Oscar, however, it is Penn — a chameleonesque superstar who may have given us his greatest reinvention yet as gay-rights pioneer Harvey Milk.
Best Actress
Should Win
» Josh Horowitz: Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
» Fonzworth Bentley:
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
» George Whipple: Anne Hathaway
» Larry Carroll:
Melissa Leo, "
Frozen River"
Will Win
» Josh Horowitz: Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
» Fonzworth Bentley: Meryl Streep
» George Whipple: Anne Hathaway
» Larry Carroll: Kate Winslet
Analysis
This battle between a veteran (Streep), an awards-season newcomer (Hathaway) and a five-time bridesmaid (Winslet) is shaping up to be one of Oscar's biggest smackdowns. Our panel narrowly gives the edge to Winslet — possibly the greatest actress of her generation and someone who needs to stop getting snubbed year after year. Factor in her criminally non-nominated turn in "Revolutionary Road," and Oscar voters seem likely to reward the new Streep rather than the original model.
This report is from MTV News.
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